Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The typical figure of everyday killings each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new official statistics. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder data may not signal improved countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, noting that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, security analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it could obscure periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.