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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."