Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.